PCC turnout expectations

See all my blog posts on the PCC elections by clicking the PCC label in the tag list on the right, or go to tonyox3.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/PCC.

In a reply to @RubyMalvolio’s comment on my previous post I said that turnout next Thursday might – just might – surprise us by being as high as 25%. That set me looking for other forecasts, and I found this from yesterday on the authoritative politicalbetting.com website. It seems there’s not much betting interest in the election: none at all for the candidates, only for the turnout. Ladbrokes were offering odds of 5/6 on a (national) turnout of both more and less than 17.5%; Bet Victor had 8/11 for higher than the same figure, evens for lower. Bet Victor’s odds had shaded marginally today towards the lower range at 4/5 and 10/11 respectively, still centred on 17.5%. What the bookies seem to be saying is “we reckon turnout will be 17.5% but we really don’t know if it’ll be higher or lower than that”.

If the odds were better I might back my hunch, but at 4/5 I’ll save my cash!

Update: Just to clarify, my hunch about higher turnout only relates to Thames Valley. I haven’t been following campaigns in the rest of the country.